📜 The United Kingdom under a Labour Government

The likelihood is Keir Starmer being in 10 Downing Street on July 5th with a decisive mandate. You can argue about whether that mandate is a reflection of people buying into Labour’s vision, or simply rejecting the status quo and wanting a change. But in practical terms you get the same result: a Labour government with a big majority. I would be surprised if it’s a 250+ seat majority and the Conservatives are completely wiped out, if only because of the electoral legacy and strength that the Conservative Party has. But the polls aren’t narrowing and the Conservatives are moving from one error to the next, so a Labour landslide looks entirely possible.

Change is the key message from Labour, but growth is what underpins their policy offer to the country. They’re making the case that we’re in a bad place, that we’re constrained by the state the Conservatives have left the country in, and so to deliver these positive changes we’re going to deliver growth first. That growth will then allow the changes on energy, on health, on education, on whatever.

The Labour party has historically been seen as less economically credible. There’s always a trust issue for Labour on public finances to some degree. This was particularly true in 2019 with Corbyn. It was like a big Christmas tree of promises – people didn’t think it added up. The Starmer campaign has been laser-focused over the last two or three years on ensuring that everything is fully funded, and presenting Labour as economically and fiscally responsible. That gives electoral credibility, and – so they argue – the foundations for the strong growth that will allow them to deliver that change.

People will give Labour time to see things change, but after a while that patience runs out. Change isn’t going to happen overnight. There will be an element of breathing space right after the election, whether that’s six months, a year, it’s hard to pin down. But there will come a point when people will want a sense that under a Labour Government the country is moving in the right direction. Is their experience of public services improving? I think that will be one of the key criteria.